Watching out for 2000, 4000, 8000, etc

As of last night, there were about 1000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus. That means that there should soon be 2000 cases. If the infection spreads exponentially, with a doubling every 2 days, we should reach 2000 by Sunday evening. If it spreads faster than this, we'll see 2000 before that. If slower, 2000 will appear later.

The next number to look for after 2000 is 4000. If 4000 is reached quicker than we reached 2000 from 1000, we're faced with an explosive situation. If the time interval is the same, we're still in a regular exponential phase. If slower, we may be looking at an early topping off, in which case there's still hope for containment.

After 4000, we look for 8000. Here again, we'll compare time intervals to judge where in the cycle we are. We can again determine if the disease is progressing explosively, exponentially, or topping off. For every doubling, we look for the next doubling. This way, we stay on top of the situation. We can estimate the rate at which the disease is spreading, and roughly when to hunker down for a day or two.

By Michiel Sweerts - Image: http://collections.lacma.org/sites/default/files/remote_images/piction/ma-31770455-O3.jpg Gallery: http://collections.lacma.org/node/183358 archive copy, Public Domain, Link