Calculations Related to Virus Infections

The latest headline numbers from China has 25 people dead and 830 patients infected by the current Coronavirus outbreak. Two days ago, the numbers were about half of this. The current rate of infection is in other words a doubling every 2 days. Left unchecked, there will be about 800,000 cases in 20 days, 25,000,000 cases in 30 days, 800,000,000 cases in 40 days, and the entire world population within 50 days. However, not everybody will be infected. The Spanish flu, which spread in this manner, infected a total of 500,000,000 people. At its peak, there could not have been more than 250,000,000 patients.

If the current virus outbreak in China progresses in a similar manner to the Spanish flu, we can expect a peak in about 40 days from now. A total of about 1,600,000,000 people may get the decease before it fades away. The overwhelming majority of cases will be concentrated around this peak, meaning that most of us have at least 30 days to take any precautions. There is no immediate hurry to stock up on tinned and dried foods. The supply required to weather the worst of the outbreak in isolation from other people does not have to be more than about 10 days.

From looking at the headline numbers, we can conclude that the current outbreak kills about one in ten people. A virus of this kind tends to cause maximum harm to an individual about 3 days after the illness has manifest itself. The 25 people dead are therefore belonging to the group of patients that existed 3 days ago. That was about 250 individuals. The death rate of the current virus outbreak is therefore comparable to the Spanish flu which also killed about one in ten of those affected. It is likely then that we might end up with about 160,000,000 dead people within the next two months, unless we see a sudden and steep decline in the number of cases relatively soon. However, regardless of how this outbreak proceeds, the vast majority of us will either not get infected at all, or survive to live another day.

By w:User:Graham Beards - w:User:Graham Beards created this work entirely by himself. Transfer from English Wikipedia, CC BY 3.0, Link