Saturday, March 18, 2023

Will Zelensky Pivot East

The Chinese are on a diplomatic offensive in the Middle East and Eastern Europe these days. Having already convinced the Saudies to trade their oil for Yuan, next stop on the diplomatic tour is Moscow, and very likely a visit to Kiev as well.

The goal in Eastern Europe is to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. If successful, the diplomatic reach of China will stretch as far as Kiev, and we will see a Pax China emerge in which the Silk Road between the far east and the far west of Eurasia is restored.

With nobody any longer believing that Ukraine can win their war against Russia, and hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers dying every day, a brokered peace deal must seem tempting to Zelensky who has been badly let down by NATO.  Every attempt at de-escalation has been sabotaged by western politicians, with terrible consequences for the Ukrainian people.

But Zelensky can't simply accept a peace deal with Putin. That would be dangerous to him personally, so the Chinese will have to offer him something better than what the West has been willing to do. China will have to guarantee his safety and provide him with more money than the West has been doing.

Apart from that, I don't think there's much more that Zelensky is looking for. He knows that he'll end up like Mussolini did back in the 1940s if he tries to stick around in Kiev for much longer. He's probably desperate for constructive talk regarding his safety. If the Chinese can provide Zelensky with what the West has refused him, he's likely going to be in on a deal.

If the Chinese end up successful in their mission, NATO will have suffered a great defeat. The US dollar will lose its dominance in trade. The West will be in disarray as it tries to come to grips with the new world order.

Head shot of Xi Jinping in 2019. He is wearing a black suit jacket, white shirt and a blue necktie.
Xi Jinping

By Palácio do Planalto - https://www.flickr.com/photos/palaciodoplanalto/47945730807/, CC BY 2.0, Link

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