Increasing Snow Mass on the Northern Hemisphere

Winter is nearing its end, with melt season starting in about two weeks. That means that we're unlikely to see much snow accumulation from here on out. It also means that we can say a few things with a high degree of certainty about the winter of 2023 and how it compares to previous winters.

The charts I will be referring to can be found by following this link. Of interest to us is the chart titled "GCW/FMI SWE Tracker" and the chart titled "EC/GCW NH SWE Tracker". Both track the Snow Water Equivalent on the northern hemisphere; I.e. the amount of water locked up in the snow-cover.

The main difference between the first and the second chart is that the first one compares the current winter's snow-fall to the average from 1982 to 2012 while the other compares it to the average from 1998 to 2011. The first one uses a thirty year average while the second one is based on a thirteen year average.

This means that we can compare the thirteen years up until 2011 with the thirty years up until 2012, and when we do that we find that winters during the thirteen year period were less rich in snow than previous years. This supports my impression that the mid-nineties until mid-tens were unusually mild compared to previous years. Those years happen to correspond to the peak of the modern warm period which traditional climate analysis would point to as a temporary top before we go into a new cold period.

This hypothesis is further supported by the fact that our current winter comes out as unusually rich in snow compared to both the thirteen and thirty year averages. We're tagging the one standard deviation on the thirty year trend line, and we're way above the one standard deviation on the thirteen year average. That means that this winter has seen a great deal more snow than normal, going back to 1982. This in turn, may mean that we'll see glaciers start growing again in the not too distant future. In fact, the thirteen year chart seems to indicate that this is already happening.

Looking closely at the thirteen year chart, we see that snow cover was above normal as early as August 2022. With August being the end of the melt season, the above normal snow cover in August was glacial by definition. If it persists, we'll see glaciers grow larger.

It appears that the classic climate model is once again proven correct. We've passed the modern maximum, and we're entering a period of colder weather with more snow and ice.

Hardangerjøkulen viewed from Hårteigen