Final data for August is still being collected at Wikipedia, but it's already clear that there will be more than 700 notable deaths. That's up from about 600 deaths in August 2018 and 2019, but down from about 800 deaths in August 2020 and 2021.
We're seeing about 15% excess deaths relative to normal years. This is likely due to the pandemic and how it was handled. Considering the stress suffered, excess deaths that continue into otherwise normal years is to be expected. However, September and October may nevertheless turn out ugly because these two months saw relatively few deaths even during the pandemic.
There's something about September and October that makes them especially safe. Few people die during those months. Excess deaths will therefore be more noticeable than during other months.
Notable deaths for September and October during the pandemic were at about 700. That's no different from what this August is going to be. There's therefore a real possibility that September and October this year will come in with the most deaths on record for those two months.
Adding to the chances of this happening is the fact that any benefits related to boosters currently under way will show up in the statistics several months after they are rolled out. The rollout itself will be associated with an uptick in deaths, as has been the case during every rollout so far, while any benefits that this may result in will come later.
With people taking the Omicron booster this September and October, we're likely to see this reflected in the numbers. This will be similar to how the June and July campaign of 2021 corresponded to higher than usual mortality rates, only for excess deaths to fade over the following 12 months.
A similar pattern is likely to emerge this September and October.
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| Notable deaths according to Wikipedia |
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