Tuesday, February 19, 2019

While Bitcoin has Everybody's Attention

Bitcoin is again catching everybody's attention. It has had a nice run up towards 4000, and optimistic comments are everywhere. This is the beginning of a run to 15000 and beyond, they claim.

Meanwhile, gold is pushing up through heavy resistance at 1330 per ounce.

It is almost as if Bitcoin is intentionally drawing attention away from gold. The situation reminds me of 2017 when I had to decide on what to do with the money I had received from the sale of my house in Norway. Had I listened to the chatter and "advice" of the time, I would have put some of the money in Bitcoin and the rest in shares.

However, I had done my homework. I knew that gold was cheep relative to all other assets. I also knew that technology cannot ever be money. Technology changes. Old technology becomes obsolete. It becomes worthless within a few decades at the most. I decided to use the money to pay down all debt, buy gold for most of the remaining, and leave the rest in a savings account.

As it happens, nothing has performed better than that particular combination. Bitcoin crashed during 2018 and stocks have under-performed gold.

Nothing has fundamentally changed since I made my decision in 2017, and while gold has done well, it has not done so spectacular that a major pull back can be expected. If there is a pullback, I will add to my stash. But I wouldn't bet on it happening. Gold can just as well break through the resistance and head substantially higher without any pullback at all.

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