Friday, October 11, 2019

Bitcoin and Negative Yielding Bonds

The world of finance is becoming increasingly like a casino where only dumb luck, or perfect Poker skills, determine the outcome. As a whole, no-one but the casino owners and their dealers win.

This is perfectly evident in the bond market where people are dealing in negative yielding bonds. Anyone holding such bonds to maturity looses money, so it is only those with luck or above average skills that win. Staying too long at the table guarantees a loss. Only the issuers and primary dealers, together with a handful of exceptionally lucky or skillful individuals, win in the long run.

This is true for any investment in things that decay faster than they generate income. Commodities like grains, fish and meat must be sold before they spoil. Real-estate, if not rented out, must be sold at a price higher than the purchase price in order to cover fixed expenses. Cash must generate interest above the rate of inflation.

Bitcoin generates no income, and is in this respect a commodity. It must be sold at a higher price than what it was bought for in order to yield a profit to the holder. This may not seem problematic to the casual observer, because Bitcoin is like gold or silver. They last forever. Gold and silver can be kept free of charge in a secret hiding place of our own making. Bitcoin can be kept in a private wallet.

However, there is a widely overlooked aspect of Bitcoin. It requires a network of computers in order to exist, all of which requires energy and maintenance. The Bitcoin network as a whole requires a constant inflow of resources. Bitcoin is in this respect like negative yielding bonds. Anyone holding them for a long enough time are guaranteed a loss. The only winners in this game are energy companies, dealers in hardware equipment, and those lucky or skillful enough to ride the waves of ups and downs.

Cryptocurrency Mining Farm.jpg

By Marco Krohn - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

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