Monday, December 4, 2017

Price Action vs. Value

According to this article in Zerohedge, the total flow of money into Bitcoin has been a mere 6 billion dollars.

This relatively small amount has moved the price of Bitcoin all the way up to a market cap of 200 billion.

The article concludes that if any of the big institutions were to move into Bitcoin, the price would go even more parabolic.

The same day, also in Zerohadge, this article wrote of a pole dance instructor that now is a crypto guru.

Among her list of advice to potential investors was this little gem: "The good thing is when it goes down, you can buy some more, and you know it's going to go up at some point."

That's a sure fired recipe for disaster, unless the fundamentals for the investment object is rock solid and one's time horizon is decades into the future.

What both articles have in common is that there is no regards for fundamentals. There is not even an attempt to value Bitcoin in any other way than money flow and price action.

What the fundamentals tell us is that Bitcoin is obsolete and of no practical value. Furthermore, we know that Bitcoin mining consumes billions of dollars in electricity every year.

This means that we have something of no value, consuming energy at a rate equivalent to the total inflow of money.

This is capital destruction at a massive scale.

For all the headline numbers, close to no-one has made any money on Bitcoin. All the money made has been consumed by the electricity bills. Whoever has made money on this has done so at the expense of others.

Bitcoin is an energy consuming monster that will eventually collapse to nothing. The fact that it may go even more parabolic in the short to medium term does not alter this.

The ultimate result will be that there are a few people who got out in time and a large number of people who didn't. As a whole, Bitcoin owners will have a net loss equal to the electricity bill.

Cryptocurrency Mining Farm.jpg
Cryptocurrency mining farm

By Marco Krohn - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

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