Monday, December 18, 2017

Don't be a Pig

"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered" is an old Wall Street saying. Another one that's worth keeping in mind is this one: "There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are no old bold traders."

Both relate to the pig's desire for quick and easy money. Pigs get into stuff without any clear notion of value. They roam around, sometimes making a lot of money in a short time. However, their lack of due diligence and clear idea of value eventually gets the better of them.

Bulls and bears, in contrast, are good at spotting market tops and bottoms. The bull enters as a buyer near the bottom of a market cycle and leaves near the top. The bear enters as a short seller at the top and cover their shorts near the bottom.

Pigs on the other hand, enter as buyers near the top, when things get manic, and leave at the bottom, or never at all, depressed and broke.

Pigs are attracted to manias. Bulls and bears stay clear.

An important thing to note about bulls and bears is that they have clear price targets based on fundamentals. They do not buy or sell purely based on momentum. They know that things move in cycles, and they make their profits from riding the ups and downs.

A bull and a bear is often the same person for the simple reason that they base their actions on fundamentals. Pigs base their actions on momentum.

Ask a bull or a bear about their thoughts, and there will be talk of historic correlations and expected earnings. Ask a pig about their thoughts and there will be talk of new paradigms and price action.

A good indicator of a market top is the presence of pigs. Their euphoric ramblings are loud and painfully stupid. At the market bottom on the other hand, there are no pigs. It is quiet. Nothing appears to be going on, so the bulls can get in and the bears get out in preparation for the next cycle.

Sus scrofa domesticus, miniature pig, juvenile.jpg
Pig

By Johan Spaedtke - Own work, CC0, Link

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