No Need for Rebalancing

Eight years have passed since I sold my house in Asker, and two years have passed since I last made an assessment related to our financial progress since then. This is in tune with my philosophy of long-term investments, as outlined in my book, which holds that the key to success is to invest in mega-cycles that run for years or decades, and to ride them with little to no change in position. True to this philosophy, our investments haven't been rebalanced. They have been kept in gold, real-estate and cash.

There has been little action in the Dow/Gold ratio over these years, which means that our gold position has been equivalent to being invested in the Dow:

• Jan 2017 = 16.4
• Jan 2019 = 18.2
• Jan 2021 = 16.2
• Jan 2023 = 18.8
• Jan 2025 = 16.3

The Dow has underperformed gold over the last two years, but only marginally. The Dow remains below 20 ounces, which has served as critical resistance for eight years running.

However, the PSI20/Gold ratio has dropped from 107 to 79 over the past two years, and is now down a stunning 94% from its peak in year 2000.

The price of our apartment in Porto has had the best run. It's up by 140% in nominal terms since 2017. Gold is up 100% by comparison. Our cash position has seen some fluctuations due to short term expenses and windfalls, but remains a fairly minor part of our assets.

My prediction from two years ago have been proven correct, with gold outperforming real-estate in Porto, and gold also outperforming stocks.

As a result, our allocations have made the following relative moves over time:

• Jan 2017: 10 part real-estate, 20 part gold, 5 part cash - for a total of 35
• Jan 2019: 15 part real-estate, 20 part gold, 5 part cash - for a total of 40
• Jan 2021: 20 part real-estate, 30 part gold, 3 part cash - for a total of 53
• Jan 2023: 24 part real-estate, 33 part gold, 3 part cash - for a total of 60
• Jan 2025: 24 part real-estate, 40 part gold, 6 part cash - for a total of 70

This is a 100% increase in nominal terms over a eight year period, which is more than the inflation during those years. This trend has continued over the past two years with a 17% increase, which is slightly above inflation.

Looking forward two years, I expect price inflation to move gold and real-estate up against cash, with gold outperforming real-estate. Stocks may continue up in nominal terms but will lag gold. The Dow/Gold ratio is more likely to go down to 10 than up from present levels. The PSI20/Gold ratio will remain flat or go lower in tandem with the Dow.

In short, there's no need for any rebalancing at this point, even if the PSI20 is starting to look attractive.

British gold sovereign

By Benedetto Pistrucci - Own work, Public Domain, Link

Fertility Rates in Argentina

Fertility rates have been going down all over the world, and I've speculated that this is due to socialist policies, because socialism leads us into thinking that someone else's children will take care of us when we grow old. We're told to pay taxes now so that we'll be well provided for in the future. Having children becomes in this way more expensive relative to our net income, and those who trust in the government figure they can skip the extra cost of having children and rely on the promised pensions instead.

If this is true, Argentina should see increased fertility rates pretty soon due to its dismantling of the welfare state. We have a test case for our hypothesis.

Fertility rates in Argentina

Why we don't have to worry about rising sea levels

Introduction

This winter is, according to the UN's own data, the fifth winter running with snow and ice accumulating on the northern hemisphere.

Snow and Ice accumulation 2024 to 2025

We're more than one standard deviation above normal compared to winters from 1998 to 2011.

Increase in glaciation

It's also clear from the above graph that the snow and ice accumulated during the winter of 2023 to 2024 did not melt away through the summer, because the red line starts above zero. The northern hemisphere is in other words seeing an increase in ice cover.

Looking at the winter of 2023 to 2024 we see that it too started out with glaciation.

Snow and Ice accumulation 2023 to 2024

So, if this winter follows this trend, we will see further glaciation into next year.

Greenland is accumulating ice

From this, it's also clear that Greenland cannot possibly be shedding its icecap, because Greenland has by far the thickest ice cover on the northern hemisphere. If it was melting away at anywhere near the pace reported in mainstream media, it would show up as deglaciation on the above two graphs, which is the opposite of what we're seeing.

This is of particular interest to us because there's absolutely no chance of the South Pole loosing any significant amount of ice. Any melting down there happens out at sea, which doesn't affect sea levels, or at the outer fringes of its landmass, which amounts to very little of Antarctica's total ice cover.

Antarctica is too cold for deglaciation

The bulk of Antarctica's ice is located in areas that never see temperatures above freezing. Even if temperatures were to rise well above what they are today, Antarctica will remain unaffected. It may even accumulate more ice due to increased precipitation.

Greenland, on the other hand, is located at a latitude that would see deglaciation if it wasn't for a cold ocean current coming down from the North Pole, which keeps the area colder than what it would otherwise be.

A change in ocean currents would cause Greenland's ice to melt. However, that would be at the expense of Scandinavia, which would see its climate go from unusually mild, considering its location, to unusually cold.

As far as climate goes, Greenland and Scandinavia can swap places, but they cannot both become significantly warmer at the same time. A small temperature increase is all we can reasonably expect to see for both these regions at the same time.

Worst case scenario

This means that any rise in sea levels would have to come from Greenland. But that icesheet isn't going to melt very fast. It will take centuries, if not millennia to melt it all, and the resulting sea rise will be no more than 7.4 meters.

So, if we for argument's sake suppose that it will take 740 years to melt all of the ice on Greenland, we'll get a 10 millimeter sea rise per year, which translates to one meter per century.

However, there is at the moment no deglaciation going on. In fact, there's more ice on the northern hemisphere today than there was fifteen years ago, so a ten millimeter sea rise per year is an absolute worst case, at least for this coming century.

Conclusion

Considering that there's no deglaciation going on at the moment, and that even a worst case scenario limits sea rise to one meter per century, there's no reason for anyone to panic about rising sea levels.

A modest investment in dikes and water management infrastructure is all that's required in order to fully protect ourselves for at least a century into the future.

Atlantis, the Igloo Effect, and Mass Extinctions

Introduction

The legend of Atlantis is an enduring myth that may have more truth to it than is generally believed, because its existence would go a long way in explaining how ancient building techniques and religious symbols all over the world are as similar as they are.

Places as far separated as Peru, Mexico, Egypt, Mesopotamia, India and Cambodia, all have ancient building structures that are remarkably similar. They also have gods carrying handbags and displaying other symbols that are virtually identical in all these places.

At the very least, these places must have been connected by a network of trade and cooperation.

Not a new idea

The illustration below shows us that this is not a new idea. People have been speculating about Atlantis for a long time, and this particular map is a good example of this. However, it contains some glaring errors.

If Atlantis existed some twelve thousand years ago, Scandinavia would have been under a thick layer of ice, and so would the northern parts of North America.

On the other hand, East Asia should have been included. If not as a part of the Atlantis empire, then at least as an important cultural and economic connection.

Position and extent of Atlantis and its empire, postulated by Ignatius L. Donnelly in 1882

By Ignatius Donnelly; cropped by Beyond My Ken (talk) 22:14, 28 September 2010 (UTC) - This image is available from the United States Library of Congress's Prints and Photographs division under the digital ID cph.3b36915.This tag does not indicate the copyright status of the attached work. A normal copyright tag is still required. See Commons: Licensing for more information., Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11626443

Remarkable accuracy

However, what's remarkable about this map is not its errors and omissions, but the fact that the island of Atlantis is drawn in at a location that would in fact have been dry land at the time of Atlantis' supposed existence.

The author of the map could not have known this for sure because the map was drawn before our ocean floors were mapped out. At most, he was aware of the Acores, which are today found in the region. But the landmass is drawn into the map, not because of the Acores, but because this is where Plato in his time said that the island was located. That's more than two thousand years ago.

Atlantis

Strategic location

If a dominant civilization existed at the end of the great ice age, we can hardly imagine a better location for its center.

The island of Atlantis was large enough to sustain a civilization, it was near impossible to invade due to its surrounding seas, and its central position on the map would have made it a perfect spring board for imperial expansion. So, it's clear that this part of the legend has merit. But could the island really have sunk into the ocean in as little as a night and a day, as claimed by Plato?

More than an earthquake?

While it's possible to imagine an island the size of England sinking into the ocean due to an earthquake, evidence suggests that this didn't happen, because if it did, the reconstructed map should show no land at the location of Atlantis.

So, for this part of the legend to be true, the oceans must have risen abruptly.

But conventional theory has it that the oceans have risen slowly and steadily over thousands of years due to a steady melting of the ice caps.

Some catastrophes are known to have happened, such as the flooding of Doggerland in the North Sea some ten to twelve thousand years ago. But all in all, sea levels have moved higher without much in the way of catastrophe.

Sundaland, in East Asia, is another area that is known to have sunk into the sea with rising sea levels, and some have suggested that the legend of Atlantis is merely a reference to places such as Sundaland and Doggerland. But these places are not where Plato puts Atlantis. Nor is it a given that these areas disappeared slowly rather than catastrophically. We merely assume that sea levels rose steadily over centuries because that's how great volumes of snow and ice melt.

However, if large amounts of land ice were to slide into the oceans, there would be catastrophic floodings without any exceptional melting going on, and this could happen very quickly.

Icesheet slippage

For instance, if the current Greenland icesheet slid into the Atlantic ocean, there would be a huge tsunami, followed by a permanent sea rise of up to 7.4 meters. So, if something like that happened in the past, we would have had a situation similar to the one described by Plato.

The strong earthquake that rocked Atlantis, according to Plato's story, may have triggered an icesheet slippage relatively close by, which would have caused a tsunami to wipe out most of the island. Shortly thereafter, there'd be a catastrophic flooding of Doggerland, and this would in turn be followed by a global rise in sea levels, affecting low-lying lands everywhere, including Sunnaland.

So, when the few survivors from Atlantis returned to their island to look for it, they would have found it permanently sunken into the sea. Instead of dry land, they would have found shallows and islands, like Plato said they did.

Rapid disappearance of icesheets

This scenario, if sufficiently large scale, or repeated several times, would have greatly accelerated the melting of the ice caps, because water is a lot more effective than air in melting snow and ice. Instead of air and sun melting the ice over tens of thousands of years, the icesheets would have disappeared within a few thousand years, which is what appears to have happened, based on geological records.

Icesheet slippage can therefore explain how the enormous icecaps of the great ice age came to disappear as quickly as they did. But by what mechanism would this have happened?

The igloo effect

A phenomenon rarely considered when it comes to truly enormous icesheets is what's known as the igloo effect. Yet, this mechanism may be key to understanding why great ice ages tend to come to sudden and catastrophic ends, where ice that has accumulated over tens of thousands of years disappear in a tiny fraction of this time span.

To understand this, we have to recognize that ice and snow are insulators that prevent heat from escaping. For example, the inside of an igloo can be a great deal warmer than outside temperatures, even with a relatively small heat source at its center.

The same goes for icesheets where the temperatures close to the ground can be a great deal warmer than at their surface, because Earth itself is a heat source. In fact, once an icesheet becomes sufficiently thick, temperatures at ground level may go permanently above freezing. Instead of being anchored to the ground through frost, the icesheet comes unglued.

Sitting on top of large pools of fresh water, the icesheet becomes unstable and liable to slip, because ice is virtually frictionless when pressed against a wet surface.

Planetary expansion

Once an icesheet looses its anchoring, a large chunk of it can break loose and slide into the ocean. All it takes is a sufficiently strong earthquake for disaster to ensue. It's therefore interesting to note that there's evidence to suggest that our planet is expanding, and that this happens in fits and starts that coincide with ice ages.

Furthermore, Earth's expansion is lopsided, with the Pacific region expanding faster than the Atlantic. A consequence of this is that Greenland, Canada and Scandinavia have moved southwards from where they were located at the start of the last great ice age.

This explains why it was Canada and Scandinavia that together with Greenland held the bulk of ice on the northern hemisphere during the last great ice age, and why northern Russia was less affected. It also suggests to us that Canada and Scandinavia may have shed their icesheets, largely or in part, by slippage into surrounding waters.

Mass extinctions

There also appears to be a relationship between the size of our planet and the maximum size of land animals. Not only were dinosaurs larger than the mammals that followed them, but ancient mammals were larger than mammals are today, and the same goes for birds. Furthermore, mass extinctions happen periodically, and the latest episodes coincided with what was presumably the latest fits of Earth expansion some twelve and four thousand years ago.

Researchers, such as Stephen Hurrell, have pointed out that mass extinctions are likely due to an increase in gravity that correspond to an increase in the size of our planet. So, it wasn't climate change or human activity that killed off the Saber Tooth Tiger, the Giant Sloth and the Woolly Mammoths. Rather, it was an increase in gravity that did this, coupled with an inability by these animals to respond sufficiently quickly with smaller offspring.

On the other hand, large animals that managed to produce smaller offspring have survived to this day. The African lion being a prime example of this.

This too fits well with the legend of Atlantis where Platon implies that animals at the time were larger and more voracious than they are today.

Conclusion

The legend of Atlantis dovetails well with a number of observations and theories related to the history of our planet. Every aspect of the story can be explained, including the island's sudden and dramatic demise. But the only way to conclusively find out if the legend is true would be to survey its supposed location for human artifacts. Until that happens, we must treat this legend with the same skepticism that we treat any other legend or theory.

When Someone Better Comes Along

No relationship is perfect. There's always someone out there that can be considered better than our spouse, and my wife will sometimes say, ironically of course, that she could have done better. To which I respond that I too could have done better. It's a bit of a running joke with us because we never deluded ourselves into thinking that we were getting into the perfect relationship to start with. We know perfectly well that there are others out there, and that they might have been even better. We've settled for above average and built our relationship on that.

The better one

So, what happens when "someone better" comes along? Do we drop everything and rush off to hook up with this other person? Or do we avoid this person for fear of temptation? Or is there perhaps room for less drastic actions?

I think a lot of people simply avoid the "better ones" so that they don't have to deal with the agony of temptation. But that's a sad strategy because it means that we deliberately avoid people who intrigue us just because we fear what is in the end a very unlikely outcome.

A better strategy is to approach these people with the genuine curiosity and enthusiasm that we have for them. This may trigger some silly fantasies. But is that really such a bad thing? It's not like we act out every fantasy we ever had. Why should this one be any different?

Acting on my curiosity

So, the other day, when I came across the woman who was everyone's darling back in high school, I decided to respond to one of her observations about life. I was curious because I thought her always the very embodiment of a happy and carefree person, yet she talked as if life had been hard on her.

One thing led to another, and pretty soon we were talking about all sorts of stuff. The thought struck me that this really is a fantastic woman. She's beautiful, full of interesting ideas, and wealthy. The hardships she's been through haven't dented her overall positive outlook on life. She's also single, and evidently ready to hook up with "the right one".

So now, what do I do? I can't continue talking to this woman behind my wife's back, because that only adds to the fantasy of eloping with her. I had to take this conversation out of the shadows, or I had to break it off.

Bringing things out in the open

Not interested in simply cutting off the conversation, I decided to let my wife know about it. But her immediate reaction was brutal. Why don't you just pack your suitcases and go? she asked. Which was odd, because I had merely stated my genuine curiosity for my old class mate. I had hardly completed my first few sentences before my wife concluded that I had found "the better one", and that I was therefore prepared to rush off at a moment's notice.

Refusing to back down on my story, I decided to up it a notch, playing along with my wife's hysteria, which of course only served to make her even more angry. But I figured I might as well stir the pot to get all the drama out in the open. I recognized her reaction for what it was, so I knew what to do about it.

The aftermath

Now that a few days have passed since the incident, things are already back to normal. I've passed the tests, and with the conversation I'm having with my former class mate out in the open, the fantasies I had are quickly fading.

I'm glad I didn't hold back in contacting my friend, and I'm glad I told my wife about it.

An opportunity to grow

I've had an interesting conversation with a woman I always admired, and my wife is now getting confirmation that I'm not going to pack my bags even when a very attractive alternative crosses my path.

None of this would have happened if I simply avoided any contact with my former school mate, which goes to prove that cowardly behavior ends up being nothing but missed opportunities. When we're faced with a challenge, especially one that intrigues us, embrace it!

Navigating a storm

By maybe Allan C. Green or George Schutze or maybe Alexander Harper Turner - This image is available from the Our Collections of the State Library of Victoria under the Accession Number:, Public Domain, Link

Not Mainly Between Our Ears

Sexual libido is said to be something that resides mainly between our ears, but that's not the case, not for men in any case. Rather, it has a direct relationship to men's health. If our Kegel muscles are in good shape, and we're feeling fine, especially in the area between our navel and our knees, we'll perform well, even with a minimum of visual or otherwise sensual input.

I know this for a fact, because I've followed my own advice, and the results have been remarkable. Furthermore, I've done this for two years, so it's clear that this is not some temporary solution that quickly fades. It's a stayer in more than one sense of the word. In fact, my sexual powers are back to where they were in my forties.

None of this has anything to do with what's going on between my ears. But things have changed there too. Right off the bat, when starting my new exercise routines, I noticed a greater awareness of the women I see and meet. In that way too, I've been brought back to my forties.

It's clear from this that physical wellbeing drives sensuality, and it's also clear that this doesn't work in reverse. Men cannot improve their libido by finding a younger spouse, or by watching porn, or indulge in any other erotically stimulating activity, including fire place cuddling and romantic trips. Whatever positive effect is gained this way is short lived and unreliable.

However, even subtle stimuli will work wonders on a man with a healthy body. The shy smile of a pretty girl, the voice of a lady friend, and the unexpected sight of a skirt lifted by the wind. These are suddenly powerful inputs.

This is not to say that we should cut out porn completely from our lives, as some puritans keep insisting. Because porn isn't really a problem. It's a disappointing and ineffective way to gain satisfaction. That's true. But as a visual kick to boost one's hunger, it works fine.

Porn is neither a cure nor a curse. It's a strong visual stimuli, pure and simple, and the fact that it doesn't work as a permanent cure for a dwindling libido underscores the fact that sex doesn't reside primarily between our ears. No amount of sexual fantasizing can cure a weak libido. Only physical health can do that.

Cinderella

By Sarah Noble Ives - https://www.americanantiquarian.org/AabMcL53.htm, Public Domain, Link

Feeling Great

More than a year has passed since I wrote this comprehensive article on my personal health issues, so it's time to augment it with a few further observations.

Skin related issues

Skin issues are notoriously difficult to get rid of, so hardly any of my problems have completely disappeared. However, things are definitely improving.

A daily massage of affected areas with olive oil has proven effective, but there are other oils that appear to be better. Tea oil is one of them. However, the difference is not very great, so I'm sticking to olive oil for now.

The important thing is to keep at it. Sticking with the routine of massaging affected areas is more important than finding the right oil.

Digestion

My digestion is sometimes slow and sometimes a little too fast, depending on what I eat. To regulate this, I've discovered the benefit of cumin seeds. I've also found that ginger has a laxative effect. However, the most important factors appear to be water and salt intake.

It's important to drink relatively generous amounts of water every day. But the body will not retain this unless something salty is consumed as well, so I've made it a habit to drink one to two liters of tea every day, and to treat myself to some salty pickles.

Cravings

This was discovered by paying attention to cravings. At one point I had a craving for ginger, and at another time I had a craving for salty pickles. As it turned out, both are good for my digestion.

It appears then that cravings aren't as irrational as I've thought. If a craving comes out of the blue, and is unrelated to what I normally crave, chances are that this is something that will help my digestion. Our bodies know what's good for it, and we need to listen to what it's telling us.

Dirty trick

As for serious constipations, I have a dirty trick I can use, because I'm allergic to cayenne peppers. If I ingest this, my bowels will empty themselves within hours. However, this puts my whole system out of whack, so it's not something I'll do regularly.

Paying attention to how often I sit on the porcelain, and making sure I push out a cable at least once every two days is key. Sometimes, I need to sit there a little longer than I would have liked, but that's better than ending up with a big problem.

Exercise

Going out for a walk every day is good for both my digestion and overall well being. It's something I therefore take seriously.

Fresh air and a bit of sun lightens the spirit, focuses the mind, and relaxes the body. There's nothing quite like it, and it's completely free, because a walk around the neighborhood is all that it takes.

Libido and sexual performance

The vigorous Kegel exercises I've prescribed for myself have proved themselves effective. Additionally, I've discovered that masturbation without release increases sexual performance. Bringing the penis to an erection, and keeping it there for a while, purely as an exercise, result in more reliable and long lasting erections, much to the delight of my wife and myself.

Feeling great