Guilty by Association Once Removed

There's a political party in Portugal that's always been pro Russia. They stood by the Soviet Union until the bitter end, and they've been positive to all Russian leaders since as well. It doesn't matter what colour shirt the Russian leader is wearing, it's always good. No surprise then that the party is siding with Russia in the current war between Russia and Ukraine.

The party's pro Russia stance has never before been seen as anything but predictable, so it came as something of a surprise that their current position should be criticised to the point of being demonized. In all these years of being predictably pro Russia, now suddenly it's tantamount to murder.

Even more surprising to many is the latest turn of events. The pro Russia party has always thrown big public parties where they invite artists and intellectuals to entertain, and this year is no different. These parties are popular, so people are happy to come. However, this year, large Portuguese newspapers have gone out in force to demonize the guests.

Not only is the pro Russian party guilty by association of murder in Ukraine. Guests attending the public parties are guilty of murder as well. They are guilty by association once removed, as it were. Faces and names of celebrities are listed in newspapers, graphically illustrated with blood dripping from the frames of their pictures.

Vladimir Putin

By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Link

Why this September may Become the Deadliest on Record

Final data for August is still being collected at Wikipedia, but it's already clear that there will be more than 700 notable deaths. That's up from about 600 deaths in August 2018 and 2019, but down from about 800 deaths in August 2020 and 2021.

We're seeing about 15% excess deaths relative to normal years. This is likely due to the pandemic and how it was handled. Considering the stress suffered, excess deaths that continue into otherwise normal years is to be expected. However, September and October may nevertheless turn out ugly because these two months saw relatively few deaths even during the pandemic.

There's something about September and October that makes them especially safe. Few people die during those months. Excess deaths will therefore be more noticeable than during other months.

Notable deaths for September and October during the pandemic were at about 700. That's no different from what this August is going to be. There's therefore a real possibility that September and October this year will come in with the most deaths on record for those two months.

Adding to the chances of this happening is the fact that any benefits related to boosters currently under way will show up in the statistics several months after they are rolled out. The rollout itself will be associated with an uptick in deaths, as has been the case during every rollout so far, while any benefits that this may result in will come later.

With people taking the Omicron booster this September and October, we're likely to see this reflected in the numbers. This will be similar to how the June and July campaign of 2021 corresponded to higher than usual mortality rates, only for excess deaths to fade over the following 12 months.

A similar pattern is likely to emerge this September and October.

Notable deaths according to Wikipedia

53,000 Cases of Monkeypox Worldwide

It's September 2, and we're approaching 53,000 cases of Monkeypox worldwide, as predicted eight days ago.

With roughly 875 new cases per day, the worldwide number of cases currently in hospitals can be estimated to be 8,750 based on an assumption that patients are released within 10 days.

It appears that we're following the downward trajectory we've been predicting based on data from Portugal. Assuming that this trend persist, we can make the following projection going forward:

• July 24 - 17,500 cases, 700 new cases per day, 7,000 inpatients
• August 1 - 24,000 cases, 750 new cases per day, 7,500 inpatients
• August 9 - 32,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
• August 17 - 39,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
• August 25 - 46,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
• September 2 - 53,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
• September 10 - 59,000 cases, 750 new cases per day, 7,500 inpatients
• September 18 - 65,000 cases, 750 new cases per day, 7,500 inpatients
• September 26 - 70,000 cases, 625 new cases per day, 6,250 inpatients

Pride flag

By Gilbert Baker (Vector graphics by Fibonacci) - SVG based on this image, Public Domain, Link

871 Cases of Monkeypox in Portugal

A total of 871 cases of Monkeypox have been registered in Portugal as of August 31. This translates to about 4 new cases per day over the last week. This is the smallest number registered since the spread of the disease stalled in July:

• July 1 - 415 cases - about 10 new cases per day
• July 7 - 473 cases - about 10 new cases per day
• July 13 - 515 cases - about 7 new cases per day
• July 20 - 588 cases - about 10 new case per day
• July 27 - 633 cases - about 7 new cases per day
• August 3 -710 cases - about 10 new cases per day
• August 10 - 770 cases - about 9 new cases per day
• August 17 - 810 cases - about 6 new cases per day
• August 24 - 846 cases - about 5 new cases per day
• August 31 - 871 cases - about 4 new cases per day

Assuming a hospital stay of no more than ten days for the infected, there should be no more than 40 cases of Monkeypox in Portuguese hospitals at the moment.

Pride flag

By Gilbert Baker (Vector graphics by Fibonacci) - SVG based on this image, Public Domain, Link

Gold Testing Support Again

The price of paper gold broke below $1,700 per ounce again today. We're back to where we were six weeks ago when it bounced from $1,680 up to $1,800.

Having almost reached $2,100 back in March, this is disappointing. It's also a little unnerving because the bounce was without much conviction. We're stuck in a down trend that has lasted five months. However, there's still massive support at around $1,670, as can be seen in the monthly chart. We can also take comfort in the fact that the price of physical gold has hardly budged since the peak back in March.

My local gold dealer, which used to have some forty different gold products for sale is down to ten products. Their 10 gram wafer sells for €588, down only 4% from €612 back in March. Physical supply appears to be tight, and margins wide.

But the situation is precarious. The Fed is acting tough, and people are flocking to safety in cash. This impacts all markets. But some markets are more influenced than others. Stocks are likely to go down faster than the price of gold in the event of a crash. That means that those holding gold will be relatively better off.

The big winners in the event of a crash are always the ones holding cash. However, cash is a more precarious position than gold. The Fed can suddenly start printing money again. Gold, on the other hand, can only be manipulated so far before something breaks.

The best position right now, with stocks and real-estate priced at elevated levels, is a mix of gold and cash, as recommended in my book.

Monthly Gold Chart Captured on July 14

Mistaking the Market for the Economy

In a free market economy, the market is the economy. There's no distinction. However, in a regulated economy, the market deviates from the economy. Prices no longer reflect underlying demand and supply. They reflect tings like, licences, central bank credit, and central bank lending rates. The more regulated and manipulated the market is, the more it deviates from the underlying economy.

This means that it's a mistake to look at markets in order to divine what may be going on in the economy. Yet, this is precisely what the elite tends to do. They are so tied to the fluctuations of markets that they've come to see it as their lifeblood, and the lifeblood of everyone else. They are therefore likely to misinterpret reactions to tighter financial conditions.

When the elite sees prices of stocks and real-estate go down, they assume that this must hurt the little guy. They are themselves exposed to the pain, and assume that those smaller than them must feel the pain all the more.

This impression is strengthened by stories about ordinary people getting caught in the net. Such stories abound in times of financial tightening. There's no lack of people who borrowed too much. The impression is that just about everyone is bankrupt.

The sadistically inclined may then conclude that the pain to them is worth it, and that the tightening should continue. As long as there are stories about people in even more pain, they tolerate the increased pain to themselves. However, they aren't being told the full story. Not every little guy is suffering. Only those deep in debt are in trouble. Prudent savers see their purchasing power strengthened by the day.

The irony in this is that sadists may inflict great damage to themselves in the mistaken belief that they are hurting others all the more. But the only ones hurt are themselves, and those they tricked into their web of lies. People beyond their reach will thrive, and the gap between rich and poor will become smaller.

Grand-Bazaar

By Dmgultekin - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

A Bamboozle Too Far

Central bankers everywhere are determined to cool down the global economy. The idea is that people have too much money in their hands, and that an increase in unemployment is required in order to stop them from spending it in such a way that prices rise.

The assumption is that higher interest rates destroy jobs, so central bankers are raising rates. However, this assumption is based on one of Keynes' fallacies. It assumes that it's first and foremost credit that drives job creation. But that's not how it works.

Employment requires capital investments, and capital investments require a material surplus in the economy. Credit conjured out of thin air does nothing to boost this surplus. Only real savings provide this type of surplus. Someone has to forego current consumption for capital to be accumulated.

An example taken from one of Irwin Schiff's books illustrates this: Imagine someone living on an island, catching fish by hand in order to survive. That person will have to set aside a few fishes in order to spend time making a net. The savings required have to be real fishes, not some fish credit from a central bank.

When applied to a large economy, this logic implies that someone has to forego a few fishes in order to produce a fishing vessel.

Credit conjured out of thin air doesn't equal real savings. It only serves to rise prices.

When we combine this insight with the fact that rising interest rates makes it more interesting to save for the future, we get a situation where people do in fact set aside a few fishes more than they otherwise would have if interest rates had been lower. They forego the current fish dinner in the anticipation that they will have an even bigger fish to enjoy a few months later. The fish foregone can in turn be consumed by someone working on a capital investment project.

With more real savings in the economy, there's more room for real investments. This means that the likely effect of higher interest rates is that prices of things will come down, and that capital investments will go up. The net effect of this will be more employment and more money in the hands of the working class.

If the intent of the central bankers is to whack the little guy with higher interest rates, the ploy will backfire. The only little guys getting hammered by higher interest rates are those who've gone all in on debt and speculative assets. However, the average saver and labourer will be fine.

Assuming that there's evil intent behind the current rise in interest rates, we have an example of evil getting entangled in its own web of lies. The bamboozle has gotten to the point where the devil is starting to believe it himself. When he acts with the intent of doing harm, he ends up doing good.

Klaus Schwab

By Copyright World Economic Forum (www.weforum.org) swiss-image.ch/Photo by Remy Steinegger - https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/2296517249/, CC BY-SA 2.0, Link