Monday, November 6, 2017

The Future Potential for Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a slow and expensive medium of exchange. Transactions require much time and energy to clear. It will therefore never become a convenient way to pay for everyday purchases.

The only type of transaction where Bitcoin comes out better than current systems is in international trade. It is cheaper end faster than SWIFT.

This means that Bitcoin is a possible replacement for SWIFT. However, any other blockchain based token system will do just as well, and there are currently tens if not hundreds of alternatives.

In light of this, the current market cap of Bitcoin appears stretched. I have no idea what SWIFT may be worth, but I assume that it isn't much more than the 120 billion dollars that Bitcoin is currently trading at.

At current prices, Bitcoin appears to have fully priced in that it will be the preferred alternative to SWIFT in the future. However, this is far from certain.

With little upside potential, and a lot of downside risk, Bitcoin is not a good investment at current prices.

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