Tuesday, March 9, 2021

Stop Fretting About the Markets

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. I have to stop fretting about the markets. It's not like I'm going to act one way or the other based on daily changes. Not even monthly changes will sway me away from my investment strategy, so why this constant finger on the pulse? It's a waste of time. Even the relatively tiny bit of fretting that I currently do is stupid.

If I was in over my head, there would at least be some logic to my fretting. However, we have a positive cash flow. We don't need to see daily profits on our investments. We're not dependent on our nest eggs for survival. The only thing that matters is that our investments are sound and likely to do well over the long run, and there's a very simple way to determine if this is the case or not.

First of all, reduce everything to four categories:

  1. Cash
  2. Gold
  3. Real estate
  4. Index funds
Cash is needed for short term liquidity, so we put aside a reasonable portion for that. Gold is money for the long term. Real estate is for living and for renting out. Index funds are for cash flow.

With this in mind, we can dismiss silver and crypto as speculative alternatives to gold, and we can dismiss individual shares as speculative alternatives to funds.

We can allocate our savings to real estate, index funds and gold based on historic data as follows:
  • Real estate:
    • Cheap when modest but comfortable apartment/house cost less than 2 kg of gold
    • Expensive when above 6 kg of gold
  • Index funds:
    • Cheap when P/E is below 6
    • Expensive when P/E is above 15
  • Gold
    • Preferred when both real estate and index funds are expensive
From this, we can make allocations that make sense for years on end. Adding to this the risk of owning these assets, we can weigh our investments according to our age and risk appetite as well:
  • Gold: low risk
  • Real estate: medium risk
  • Index fund: highest risk
A retiree should weigh allocations more towards low risk than a younger person. However, the general rule should be to buy things when they are historically cheap and sell them when they are historically expensive.

Based on the above, my wife and I own a modest apartment in which to live, which makes it a necessity more than an investment. We also own gold, but we own no index funds.

Our allocations will remain like this until real estate and/or index fund become cheap. Only then will we re-allocate our savings, which means that we're unlikely to do anything about our positions for years to come. Seen in this perspective, even low intensity fretting about daily or weekly moves makes no sense. Much better then to stop fretting all together, and simply enjoy life with only an occasional eye on the markets. 

1959 sovereign Elizabeth II obverse.jpg
Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

Don't Try to Convince Anybody Through Arguments

No-one ever changed their views radically by listening to other people's arguments. It just doesn't happen, so it's a waste of time to try. It's annoying to hear people vent opinions that we disagree with. It's no less annoying for others to hear our side of the argument.

This is especially true on social media, and the reason I'm keeping my distance from such platforms. I don't like to hear my friends say stupid things, and I'm sure they don't like to hear my side of the argument either. Even that which comes across as glaringly obvious to me has a tendency to annoy others, so I've stopped posting my views on Facebook. I've also stopped posting life style related stuff, because that's just as annoying. People don't generally like to see people having fun in the sun while locked up in an office somewhere.

However, this doesn't mean that we shouldn't vent our opinions when there's an opportunity for this. The point is not to be silent but to be convincing, and that is best done in a relaxed atmosphere of acceptance where we say what we think without any concern about other people's reaction. Others can then choose to entertain our ideas, or they can choose to reject them. It's up to them. Trying to persuade people is a lost cause. On the other hand, allowing them to think it over works very well.

People like to make up their own minds. We like to seek information without any pressure to accept or reject. Arguments are tiring. However, reading a well written blog post can be enjoyable, even if we reject its conclusion. It makes us think. It helps us form better opinions about things. Then we can vent those improved opinions at some other time, thereby elevating the discussion over time.

To be successful in our communication, it's important to be honest. It's also important to be successful in our own way. Nobody with any kind of influence wants to listen to some loser ranting about systemic unfairness on Facebook. Only idiots take advice from people with no skin in the game. Rants and poorly thought out schemes are for losers. Winners lead by example. We live the change we want to see. We are successful in our own way, which proves to others that we are onto something.

I'm the mad uncle who flipped and moved to Portugal to live with a woman I came across on the web. I'm sure no-one took me or my wife very seriously. However, here we are ten years on, doing just fine. We're not wildly successful. But we're not failures either. We live the way we want, and that is to us success.

This has caused people with similar views to ours to come to us for advise. Again, we share with them what we think, but we're not pushing anything. We're not desperately trying to win anybody over. On the contrary, we frequently caution people. My wife and I are in a special situation. Our lifestyle isn't a cut an paste thing. Others have to find out for themselves what sort of changes they can make, and what chances they are willing to take. I don't want anyone coming back to me, telling me how I messed up their life with my bad advice.

This is why I didn't try to persuade my parents out of taking the vaccine. I knew full well that they were eager to get it, especially with all the freedoms that would be returned to them from our good politicians. But I didn't bring it up once in our phone calls leading up to their uncomfortable ordeal. That would only have served to upset them. I would have caused them needless anxiety, and they would no doubt have taken the vaccine anyway. Much better then to talk about other things.

I'm pretty sure my parents think of me as the clever one that failed. But I think they're now suspecting that I might be less of a failure than they've feared. They were quite eager to share their vaccine ordeal with me last time we spoke, and they were receptive to my ideas. However, when I told them I'm not planning to take it myself, my mother was shocked by my lack of solidarity. I should take it out of solidarity to everybody else, she argued. Rather than pointing out the flaw in that logic, I told her that I'm not much of a collectivist. I don't do things out of solidarity. I'm the evil selfish one, always looking out for myself and my family.

I don't think my mother liked that last bit of straight talking. But my father got the message. He will undoubtedly resist the pressure to be vaccinated again in the future. His son in Portugal might not be as mad as he once feared. I might even be considered a bit of a success in my own way.

Evil and selfish me enjoying a cup of coffee
Evil and selfish me enjoying a cup of coffee

Monday, March 8, 2021

Write Stuff Down

I've been writing regularly on this blog for four years now, primarily for myself. Writing stuff down clarifies a lot. It puts order into things. All sorts of connections can be found and documented this way. As a result, I've built a better understanding of the world and myself. The world has become a less confusing place.

I've not changed much as a person from this. I'm still the libertarian that I always was. If anything, I've simply rediscovered myself and become more aware of my world view and how it differs from other world views. However, my writing has improved. My thinking has become clearer. To this end, I've been influenced by others, most of them libertarians.

A consequence of this is that I now regularly come across articles that closely resemble my own writings. This article in Zerohedge is full of ideas that I've expressed myself. The only difference is that I'm more optimistic about the soft secession movement. I expect it to succeed without much conflicts. This other article, posted in Zerohedge only hours after I wrote a similar post, is in my opinion inferior to my own. I describe the deflationary consequence of current monetary policies in a more direct way.

I find this very encouraging. It means that I've reached a level of competence that rivals that of other libertarians. My ideas are as clear as those of many others, which goes to show that the apprentice often end up as competent as their masters. What I've done is not all that different from how people used to learn a craft in the olden days. Focus and attention, combined with dedication, made the apprentice both skilled and unique while true to the general form. I write libertarian stuff with my own personal angle in much the same way artists make unique art that's true to a certain style.

However, the aim never was to emulate or surpass others in this particular style of writing. I write to figure things out for myself. The fact that it comes out similar to that of other writers is merely a comforting aside.

I can highly recommend this type of writing to anyone considering writing a blog of their own. Keep in mind that key to writing freely is to keep it relatively private and anonymous. Don't push it too much on social media. There's no point in upsetting friends and family with thoughts that go contrary to their own. Rather, share your blog selectively with people you already agree with, and let search engines do the rest.

I like to read libertarian thoughts, so feel free to promote your blog through comments to my posts. Don't worry about quality and originality. The important thing is to get started. Then, as things becomes clearer, the quality and originality comes on its own. Also, don't shy away from the difficult questions. Home in on them, because that's where the interesting stuff is hidden. It's when we look into things that confuse and baffle that we have the most chance of coming up with truly valuable insights.

Cup and Saucer LACMA 47.35.6a-b (1 of 3).jpg
Rococo cup with handle

By Vincennes Porcelain (France, circa 1739–1756), Francois Binet (France, active 1750-1775, born 1731) - Image: http://collections.lacma.org/sites/default/files/remote_images/piction/ma-31852871-O3.jpg Gallery: http://collections.lacma.org/node/229367 archive copy, Public Domain, Link

Dangerous Conditioning

For twelve years straight, every drop in stock prices has been an opportunity to buy, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that the current pullback has been met with record stock market inflows. Retail investors are piling up on stocks in the anticipation of new highs a few months to a year from now. The sellers are institutions reacting more or less mechanically to higher interest rates. Very few are voicing any real concern. The expectation is that the current drop will pass as have all the other ones over the last decade. Central bankers always come to the rescue. The investing public have been conditioned to buy and hold, and never sell. However, this is a dangerous strategy. If everybody is piling into stocks at the same time, they will eventually sell at more or less the same time as well.

Stocks are too expensive relative to earnings for most people to buy and hold for ever. A typical portfolio doesn't have the earnings required to pay the investor's cost of living. Hence, at some point in the future, investors will sell stocks in order to pay bills and other expenses. The same is true for pension funds. They too are underfunded in terms of earnings. They too will sell in order to cover their commitments. A prolonged bear market is guaranteed, and there's nothing central banks can do to prevent this from happening.

Central banks can only issue credit and print money. They cannot increase productivity. They cannot fix the problems associated with low earnings, which is the only thing that matters in the long run. Without increased productivity, there will be forced selling, and an increase in money supply will not help because such increases end up affecting all prices. The sellers of stocks may get a higher nominal price, but the price of everyday products and services will go up too. Relative to their cost of living, savers in stocks may find themselves worse off, even if the stock market goes up in nominal terms. Measured relative to the cost of living, stocks will be in a bear market even if they continue to go up in nominal terms.

Making matters worse, many savers are now so conditioned to seeing stock prices go up that they will reflexively buy stocks at every dip. However, once the overall trend reverses from up to down, relative to the cost of living, this strategy will only serve to impoverish the investor. Those piling into stocks on the expectation of a new high in the near future may find themselves having to wait for decades, and only the privileged super-rich, with easy access to cheap credit will be able to hold for that long. Everybody else will have to sell, and that selling will happen at a loss, if not in nominal terms then for sure in terms of purchasing power.

The only prudent thing to do is to start cutting down on expenses, and to save in things that are likely to retain their purchasing power. That would be commodity related things. Only when the price of stocks come down to a reasonable level relative to the price of life necessities will stocks again be something worth holding into our retirement years. Until then, gold and silver is likely to do better than stocks, as explained in my book on the subject.

Desert Dawn.jpg
Dawn

Dawn - By Jessie Eastland - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Sunday, March 7, 2021

Do They Believe That Blue Anon is Real?

The Urban Dictionary has just banned the term Blue Anon, and Google has censored the term. Looking up Blue Anon on Google, nothing comes up related to this fictitious left wing conspiracy group. The only way to find anything on Blue Anon is to search for it on alternative search engines like Bing or DuckDuckGo.

Urban dictionary had until recently this to say about Blue Anon, thanks to a cache found on Bing:

TOP DEFINITION
A loosely organized network of Democrat voters, politicians and media personalities who spread left-wing conspiracy theories such as the Russia Hoax, Jussie Smollett hoax, Ukraine hoax, Covington Kids hoax, and Brett Kavanaugh hoax. Blue Anon adherents fervently believe that right-wing extremists are going to storm Capitol Hill any day now and "remove" lawmakers from office, hence the need for the deployment of thousands of National Guard stationed at the U.S. Capitol.
Hey, did you see that brave Democrat sitting on the Capitol Steps on March 5 to "send a message to QAnon?"
"Uh, yeah, that was Blue Anon, yo."
by Mrs. Tibbs March 05, 2021

They now direct readers to this page.

It's almost as if our friends at Urban Dictionary and Google believe the group to be real. That is of course nonsense. But this much we now know: Complicity theorists are real and active on the web.

Manwithtinfoilhat.jpg
Tin foil hat

By Rory112233 - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Ten Years of Freedom

The difference between liberty and freedom is that liberty is a political concept, while freedom is largely related to economy. Liberty is the absence of government meddling. Freedom is our ability to act as we please. Liberty gives us a wider range of ways to make a living than is the case under tyranny. It enables us to employ our capital and skills as we please. However, this is of little value to those who depend on government subsidies for a living. They are more likely to find freedom by gaming the system than trying to make an honest living, at least in the short to medium term.

This is why people at both ends of the economic spectrum welcome all sorts of tyrannies. The super rich know deep down that their privileges are due to government regulations and subsidies that give them advantages at the expense of the middle class. They may profess to be in their privileged position due to superior skills and insights, but this is a delusion that they nurture in order to defend their wealth.

The indolent and incompetent are similarly dependent on government. This is not the fault of their own, they claim. Rather, it's due to some inherent unfairness in the system. It's not their fault that they need help. It's the fault of the system, and government must therefore come to their rescue. Wrongs must be righted. Resources must be procured from the middle class.

The super rich and the indolent poor find each other in this way. They share a love of government and a distaste of honest work. Tyranny is to them freedom. It enables them to do more than they otherwise could achieve, at least in the short term. But this arrangement depends entirely on the middle class, and is therefore unstable. It produces changes that eviscerate the middle class over time. The top end finds its way into the super rich category through successful petitioning for subsidies and regulations of their industries. The lower end, burdened by taxes and regulations, gets dragged down into poverty. There's also a portion that finds its way into the parallel economy, largely out of reach from the state.

The tax base gets in this way eroded. Privileges can no longer be financed through taxation alone. Credit and money printing makes up for the shortfalls. Increasingly, the state relies on money printing rather than taxation. Eventually we end up where we are now with a push for full on tyranny. People are stuck at home, their mandated indolence financed by unlimited money printing. But there can be no sustained consumption without production. We can't all sit at home doing nothing. This cannot work. It must collapse, or radically transform into something that does work.

My wife and I saw this coming some ten years ago when we decided to move together and form a family. We didn't have a perfectly clear vision of the future, but we were very much aware of the corruption in the system. The competent were burdened with massive work loads at the office, and excessive taxation at home. I was no better off than many unemployed people, and my wife was in a similar situation, only barely able to pay her bills despite her long hours at work.

We soon realized that many of our bills could be reduced substantially by a rearrangement of our affairs. Moving from Norway to Portugal was in itself a big money saver. Selling my house in Norway released capital, and reduced to zero the taxes and bills associated with home ownership. I could suddenly live off of my capital income. In an odd way, I entered the sphere of the super-rich. My shares in a heavily subsidized industry allowed me to retire. My wife could at the same time reduce her hours at work. When we got a baby boy, my wife quit work. But she kept in contact with her colleagues. She did little things for her former boss from home while exploring other interests and enjoying her motherhood to the fullest. All of this, we managed to do without going into debt.

Ten years on, and we're still balancing our budgets. Our modest but comfortable lifestyle is fully sustained by cash flow. We're living within our means, and this is in the end all that's required in order to achieve maximum freedom.

A consequence of this transformation from tax donkeys to sovereigns is that we've both produced for ourselves a capital base of sorts. I've invested time in what I find interesting. The result has been a theory of physics that is currently gaining some interest. I've also developed a fairly clear vision of how capital can be invested for maximum gain and minimum risk. The world has become a less confusing place. I'm able to navigate it to my advantage.

My wife has on her side established herself as a reliable resource for her old boss. She has also become something of an expert on handicraft and machine-knitting. This has again been translated into two modest but steady streams of income. She has more control over her time, and this puts her in a position of control. She's increasingly influential in her sphere of things, and our finances are further secured. But it took us ten years to get here. It didn't happen over night.

A trap that many fall into when trying to do what my wife and I have done, is to be overly optimistic about what can be achieved. Combined with a reluctance to cut down on expenses by selling properties and scaling down consumption, many end up borrowing money to finance what they expect to be a short transition period. When the transition turns out to take longer than expected, people get financially squeezed and forced back into the corporate structure they tried to escape. I was close to falling into this trap myself, so I know from experience how easy it is to fool oneself into thinking that all is well. Had I not sold my house in time, I would have been forced to do so, and the difference in outcome would have forced me to abandon my newfound freedoms. However, with that hurdle safely passed, we can now celebrate ten years of freedom with the realistic expectation to remain in this position for the rest of our lives.

Amanhecer nos Portais.jpg
Dawn

Dawn - By Carlos Perez Couto - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

Friday, March 5, 2021

When My Mother Got the Vaccine

My parents have now taken both the first and the second shot of the experimental vaccine that's being pushed by media and politicians alike. They were looking forward to getting their freedoms back, but learned to their disappointment that things will have to go on as before, even with them now being vaccinated. What they also learned was that the vaccine comes with some unpleasant side-effects for some, but not for others. My father experienced no side-effects. However, my mother was not so lucky.

The night after they got their first shot, my mother first experienced a numbing pain in her arm where the shot had been administered. Then, for some time, she lost all strength in this arm. It was not until a few hours later that she regained her strength.

A few days later, she had a similar experience in her legs. They became heavy and without strength. She could hardly walk. But this too subsided after a few hours. It got so bad at one point that my parents considered calling the health centre, but things improved just in time, so they waited with their story until they came for the second shot. My mother told of her experience, but was told by the nurse that this was well within what can be expected from the vaccine. It was nothing to worry about, so they got their second shot.

What I found interesting in this was that the nurse found my mother's experience well within what can be expected. It made me wonder what other experiences the nurse has heard of. My father who is less trusting than my mother expressed similar thoughts. Quite a number of people have died shortly after getting the vaccine. This is supposedly pure coincidence, but now that my father has seen with his own eyes what can happen, he's less convinced by the propaganda. He was also wondering how this will evolve with so many new variants of the virus being discovered. Are we all going to be vaccinated every few months just to stay ahead of the plague?

Smallpox vaccine.jpg
Smallpox vaccine

By Photo Credit: James Gathany Content Providers(s): CDC - This media comes from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Public Health Image Library (PHIL), with identification number #2674. Note: Not all PHIL images are public domain; be sure to check copyright status and credit authors and content providers. Deutsch | English | македонски | slovenščina | +/−, Public Domain, Link