In theory, Bitcoin should act with complete disregard to the futures, since there is no way to influence the price of Bitcoin directly with futures.
However, this overlooks an important point.
The cost of a Bitcoin transaction is much higher than the price of a futures transaction. It follows from this that if an investor is solely interested in exposure to Bitcoin, buying futures rather then the real thing makes more sense.
The rational for owning Bitcoin has now been reduced to its value as a payment vehicle. For those purely interested in price action, futures are the natural choice.
This means that the introduction of futures has moved speculators away from buying Bitcoin in much the same way paper gold has moved speculators away from physical gold.
With fewer speculators choosing to buy Bitcoin, the balance has been tipped. As a result, a lot of upwards pressure on the price of Bitcoin has been removed. Speculators seeking to exit their positions find that fewer people are ready to buy. Buyers are increasingly found in the futures market where they provide no upward pressure on the underlying asset.
Having already estimated Bitcoin's value as a payment vehicle to be close to zero, we can only assume that Bitcoin has reached the end of its bull run, and is now headed lower. Short positions in Bitcoin futures are therefore the best bets for Bitcoin speculators.
By contrast, there is a real speculative side to owning physical gold. It is a bet against the paper gold market. The assumption is that paper gold will break, with the price of physical gold going up as a result.
No such scenario can be imagined for Bitcoin because Bitcoin futures do not settle in the underlying asset. There can never be a run on Bitcoin from holders of Bitcoin futures. Holders of paper gold on the other hand, may one day want to get their physical gold. Should they do so in sufficient numbers, the paper market for gold will break. There is nowhere near enough physical gold held by the Bullion banks to satisfy all holders of paper gold.
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