Russia's Options

With this year's NATO summit taking place in Vilnius this coming week, speculations are running wild as to what the Russians may do during this high level display of western power. Adding to the speculations, we have the fact that Jens Stoltenberg is pushing for Ukraine membership, which would if it happened, lead to de facto world war 3. Article 5 would be activated, and the war extended to all NATO members.

Some have suggested that the Russians would in such a situation unleash their full strength, and go all out to capture Kiev. With Wagner forces stationed some 100 kilometres north of Kiev, this scenario seems plausible. However, a different strategy seems to me more likely.

The Russians can simply choose to do nothing, indicating in this way that NATO's top officials are unable to stir the Russians one way or the other. This would be more in tune with the way the Russians have acted so far. The response to enemy hubris has been measured and unspectacular. Rather than a grand winter offensive, we got a meat grinder in Bakhmut. The response to the Ukrainian counteroffensive this summer has so far been measured.

A continuation of this strategy would mean that a NATO inclusion of Ukraine would put it on the west to act offensively. The west would have to send more weapons and ammunitions. They would also have to send soldiers. An invasion into Russia from Norway, Finland and Poland might be needed in order to circumvent Russia's defensive lines in eastern Ukraine.

None of this would be very popular with regular Europeans. The war in Ukraine is unpopular as it is. Adding a lot of dead western soldiers, and a lower standard of living for everyone in order to finance this costly war, is hardly a winning strategy. This means that the Russians can wait out the storm, and this is exactly what I expect them to do.

Mark Esper with Jens Stoltenberg

By U.S. Secretary of Defense - 200212-D-AP390-6107, CC BY 2.0, Link