Sunday, February 2, 2020
Karma
I'm all for private justice. However, I'm not so stupid as to commit crimes myself while handing out justice. Because there's this thing called karma. Things have a tendency to come back at us. That's why we have sayings such as "what goes around comes around", and "don't throw stones when in a glass house". Behaving as if karma is selective and always in our own interest rarely ends well.
Saturday, February 1, 2020
The Dawn of the post-Progressive Era
The progressive era is in its death throws. There is debt everywhere. Political hubris is astonishing. The evils of the system is plain to see. Anyone putting their trust in this system is either naive or willfully ignorant. The system will not take care of us in our old age. It will not protect us.
We're at peak centralization, and what's ahead of us is an unwind of centralized power that will take decades to complete. The UK leaving the EU is only the first step on this path. As people increasingly realize the scale of the mess produced by the central political elite, there will be more calls for decentralization. Not only will more countries leave the EU. The US will fall apart too.
The truth is that Washington has produced nothing but debt, war and misery for the masses. When pensions fail to materialize, and everything stops working. This will be plain for everyone to see. Everyone will want power to be limited and local.
If the Wuhan coronavirus turns out to be a product made in a government lab, Chinese people may also start questioning the wisdom of centralized power. They too will want an end to the dead weight and immense moral hazard that comes with centralized government.
Even people in small countries like Norway are starting to realize the hazards of centralized power. Money, taken from the public purse, has been handed over to the Clintons who in turn white washed the money through Epstein and a Norwegian affiliate. Money is wasted on all sorts of idiotic projects, if not spent on war and other nasty activities.
With decentralization, we'll get a return to sound money and free trade, unregulated by corrupt busybodies. This will mean a shift in resources from financial asset bubbles to real money, real production and real value. The early movers in this direction will benefit the most from this shift. A first step, virtually guaranteed to give a great return, is to move away from government cash and debt. Only those holding a substantial part of their savings in gold are guaranteed to prosper through the transition from centralized to decentralized society.
We're at peak centralization, and what's ahead of us is an unwind of centralized power that will take decades to complete. The UK leaving the EU is only the first step on this path. As people increasingly realize the scale of the mess produced by the central political elite, there will be more calls for decentralization. Not only will more countries leave the EU. The US will fall apart too.
The truth is that Washington has produced nothing but debt, war and misery for the masses. When pensions fail to materialize, and everything stops working. This will be plain for everyone to see. Everyone will want power to be limited and local.
If the Wuhan coronavirus turns out to be a product made in a government lab, Chinese people may also start questioning the wisdom of centralized power. They too will want an end to the dead weight and immense moral hazard that comes with centralized government.
Even people in small countries like Norway are starting to realize the hazards of centralized power. Money, taken from the public purse, has been handed over to the Clintons who in turn white washed the money through Epstein and a Norwegian affiliate. Money is wasted on all sorts of idiotic projects, if not spent on war and other nasty activities.
With decentralization, we'll get a return to sound money and free trade, unregulated by corrupt busybodies. This will mean a shift in resources from financial asset bubbles to real money, real production and real value. The early movers in this direction will benefit the most from this shift. A first step, virtually guaranteed to give a great return, is to move away from government cash and debt. Only those holding a substantial part of their savings in gold are guaranteed to prosper through the transition from centralized to decentralized society.
Thursday, January 30, 2020
Calculating Mortality Rates
We have not yet reached 8000 confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus, which means that the current doubling from 4000 cases is taking more than 48 hours to complete. That's up from the 36 hours it took to go from 1000 to 2000 and from 2000 to 4000, but inline with early estimates made when there were less than 1000 reported cases. With 170 deaths, mortality rate remains at about 10%.
However, there are good reasons to believe that the official numbers are incorrect. Not everybody are equally affected by virus infections. Some, like the German case reported a few days ago, will sneeze and cough, run a slight fever, but otherwise be fine. Many of these cases will never be reported. Only severely ill people will show up at a hospital, especially in the midst of an epidemic. People do not go to hospitals without good cause when there's a risk of catching something truly nasty. The official numbers are therefore likely to be based on severe cases only.
Without a measure of how many mild cases there might be, we cannot say anything about the overall mortality rate of the disease. However, we can be pretty sure that the mortality rate among those who get a bad case of this virus is about 10%. This can be calculated by comparing the current number of dead people with the total number of cases that existed or had existed some 2 to 3 days ago. It can also be found from direct measurements of observed groups. Of a group of 40 early cases, 15% died.
From this it is clear that there's no reason for excessive concern. A light cough, some sneezing, and a mild fever is all that most people who catch this will experience, and even if it gets worse, the survival rate is at 90%.
However, there are good reasons to believe that the official numbers are incorrect. Not everybody are equally affected by virus infections. Some, like the German case reported a few days ago, will sneeze and cough, run a slight fever, but otherwise be fine. Many of these cases will never be reported. Only severely ill people will show up at a hospital, especially in the midst of an epidemic. People do not go to hospitals without good cause when there's a risk of catching something truly nasty. The official numbers are therefore likely to be based on severe cases only.
Without a measure of how many mild cases there might be, we cannot say anything about the overall mortality rate of the disease. However, we can be pretty sure that the mortality rate among those who get a bad case of this virus is about 10%. This can be calculated by comparing the current number of dead people with the total number of cases that existed or had existed some 2 to 3 days ago. It can also be found from direct measurements of observed groups. Of a group of 40 early cases, 15% died.
From this it is clear that there's no reason for excessive concern. A light cough, some sneezing, and a mild fever is all that most people who catch this will experience, and even if it gets worse, the survival rate is at 90%.
By DoD - http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/App12_Pt12.pdf, Public Domain, Link
Wednesday, January 29, 2020
Stay Warm and Comfortable
With 6000 cases of the Wuhan coronavirus this morning, we're on track to reach 8000 by tonight. With 130 deaths, the mortality rate seems steady at about 10%. (There were about 1300 cases some 2 to 3 days ago). Numbers from outside China seem to confirm the contagion rate. Thailand has seen a doubling of cases over the last coupe of days, from 7 to 14. However, no-one outside China has died yet, so the mortality rate remains an estimate based on Chinese numbers.
The fact that the decease spreads during the incubation period, which may last up to two weeks, is troublesome. It makes it virtually impossible to know when to hunker down. By the time the decease is visible and evident to all, everybody that will get it has already caught it. Those that want to hunker down must therefore do so immediately, and be prepared to stay isolated for up to three weeks.
The more reasonable strategy is to focus on our immunity system rather than total isolation. Avoid activities and foods that stress our immunity systems. Don't go for walks in the rain and the cold. Don't stay up all night. Don't strain the body. Don't binge on sugars and junk food. Eat fatty, protein rich foods. Eat fruits and greens. Eat well. Sleep well. Stay warm and comfortable.
The fact that the decease spreads during the incubation period, which may last up to two weeks, is troublesome. It makes it virtually impossible to know when to hunker down. By the time the decease is visible and evident to all, everybody that will get it has already caught it. Those that want to hunker down must therefore do so immediately, and be prepared to stay isolated for up to three weeks.
The more reasonable strategy is to focus on our immunity system rather than total isolation. Avoid activities and foods that stress our immunity systems. Don't go for walks in the rain and the cold. Don't stay up all night. Don't strain the body. Don't binge on sugars and junk food. Eat fatty, protein rich foods. Eat fruits and greens. Eat well. Sleep well. Stay warm and comfortable.
Tuesday, January 28, 2020
The Wuhan Coronavirus in Germany
The Wuhan coronavirus has reached Germany. A German national, working for a German company, caught the virus from a Chinese woman he was in contact with about a week ago. The woman was in Germany on business. There was a seminar in which the woman instructed an assembly of Germans, including the man who caught the virus.
On her way home to Beijing, the woman fell ill, and a week later, the German national fell ill too. He caught a fever, and was coughing quite badly. However, there was never any great concern. He recovered on his own. But when he learned that the Chinese woman had been diagnosed with the Wuhan coronavirus, he thought it best to check with a doctor to see if he had in fact been suffering from it himself. As it turned out, the tests proved positive.
This story is interesting, because it tells us for sure that the virus is contagious before the infected person is showing any symptoms. It tells us that it spreads through human to human contact, and it confirms the fact that it has the symptoms of a severe flu.
What happens next will be interesting to follow. Will this man's colleagues and family catch the decease as well? And what about the passengers on the plain the woman took back to Beijing? Many of them must have been Europeans. Are we about to see a widespread outbreak of the Wuhan coronavirus in Europe? If nothing much happens over the next couple of days, we're safe. Otherwise, we might see this spread through Europe in much the same way that it has been spreading through China.
On her way home to Beijing, the woman fell ill, and a week later, the German national fell ill too. He caught a fever, and was coughing quite badly. However, there was never any great concern. He recovered on his own. But when he learned that the Chinese woman had been diagnosed with the Wuhan coronavirus, he thought it best to check with a doctor to see if he had in fact been suffering from it himself. As it turned out, the tests proved positive.
This story is interesting, because it tells us for sure that the virus is contagious before the infected person is showing any symptoms. It tells us that it spreads through human to human contact, and it confirms the fact that it has the symptoms of a severe flu.
What happens next will be interesting to follow. Will this man's colleagues and family catch the decease as well? And what about the passengers on the plain the woman took back to Beijing? Many of them must have been Europeans. Are we about to see a widespread outbreak of the Wuhan coronavirus in Europe? If nothing much happens over the next couple of days, we're safe. Otherwise, we might see this spread through Europe in much the same way that it has been spreading through China.
_%22House_colors%22_F-WWBA_-_MSN_001_(10276181983).jpg#/media/File:Airbus_A320-200_Airbus_Industries_(AIB)_%22House_colors%22_F-WWBA_-_MSN_001_(10276181983).jpg)
By Laurent ERRERA from L'Union, France - Airbus A320-200 Airbus Industries (AIB) "House colors" F-WWBA - MSN 001, CC BY-SA 2.0, Link
Revising the Numbers
We are already at 4000 confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus, and the death toll stands at 100. That's a doubling of cases in 36 hours, with a mortality rate steady at 10%. Again, it should be noted that the mortality rate must be calculated from the total number of cases that existed, or had existed, some 2 to 3 days ago. 100 dead out of a group of about 1000 cases is 10%.
However, the numbers cannot be trusted. There are good reasons to believe that the government is under-reporting the spread and severity of the disease. If they are clever about this, they may currently subtly overstate the doubling rate, so as to get closer to the real figures over time. Instead of an express revision, making them look bad, they choose to publish more aggressive spread rates for a week or two, so that when it's clear to everyone that the disease has reached epidemic levels, the official numbers match what is seen.
Going from 1000 official cases to 2000 cases took 36 hours. Going from 2000 to 4000 took likewise 36 hours. We can therefore expect 8000 cases to be reported late on Wednesday. By then, we'll probably have some data for the spread rate outside China, giving us a hint as to what the real numbers may be.
The rate of contagion will not be the same everywhere. Only densely populated areas will match the high rates seen in China. In places where people are less crammed together, the decease will spread slower.
However, the numbers cannot be trusted. There are good reasons to believe that the government is under-reporting the spread and severity of the disease. If they are clever about this, they may currently subtly overstate the doubling rate, so as to get closer to the real figures over time. Instead of an express revision, making them look bad, they choose to publish more aggressive spread rates for a week or two, so that when it's clear to everyone that the disease has reached epidemic levels, the official numbers match what is seen.
Going from 1000 official cases to 2000 cases took 36 hours. Going from 2000 to 4000 took likewise 36 hours. We can therefore expect 8000 cases to be reported late on Wednesday. By then, we'll probably have some data for the spread rate outside China, giving us a hint as to what the real numbers may be.
The rate of contagion will not be the same everywhere. Only densely populated areas will match the high rates seen in China. In places where people are less crammed together, the decease will spread slower.
Monday, January 27, 2020
Narrative, Rhetoric and Action
The latest headline numbers for the Wuhan coronavisus is 2800 confirmed cases, and 80 dead. That's in line with our projections of 4000 confirmed cases by mid day tomorrow. It also confirms our estimated mortality rate of 10%, since the 80 dead is based on the compound number of cases that we had some 2 to 3 days ago. I.e. about 800 cases.
The disease has now spread to places outside of China, which means that the Chinese authorities no longer are in charge of the overall narrative. If the Chinese have misinformed the public, we will know this pretty soon. We will get mortality rates and rates of contagion that either confirm or contradict the Chinese numbers.
What caught my attention a few days back when I started to follow this more closely, was a deviation of narrative from previous scares, such as SARS, Bird flu, Swine flu and Ebola. In those cases, national and international authorities have tended to emphasize the severity of the outbreak while simultaneously claiming that things are under control: That there are vaccines and that everybody will be fine if we just obey whatever government health authorities demand. Importantly, previous cases have had catchy names. In this new case, the decease was simply the coronavirus. But coronavirus is not a name, it's a type. Most colds and flues are caused by coronaviruses.
The current outbreak follows a different narrative. We were repeatedly told that this is nothing to worry about. Everything is fine. The disease is contained. It does not communicate between people. If we just stop eating bat or snake soup, everything will be fine. But the panic laden actions taken by Chinese authorities a few days back was pretty much proof positive that things were far from contained. The rhetoric changed. We were suddenly faced with something severe. Yet there's still no word of any vaccine. There's also a blame game going on. People are pointing fingers. Scapegoats are found, such as bloggers promoting strange and unusual foods. The narrative is rapidly shifting. There's no central control of what people are being told. All of this indicate that the situation is the result of something completely unforeseen. Some accident in a government bio-lab, perhaps.
The disease has now spread to places outside of China, which means that the Chinese authorities no longer are in charge of the overall narrative. If the Chinese have misinformed the public, we will know this pretty soon. We will get mortality rates and rates of contagion that either confirm or contradict the Chinese numbers.
What caught my attention a few days back when I started to follow this more closely, was a deviation of narrative from previous scares, such as SARS, Bird flu, Swine flu and Ebola. In those cases, national and international authorities have tended to emphasize the severity of the outbreak while simultaneously claiming that things are under control: That there are vaccines and that everybody will be fine if we just obey whatever government health authorities demand. Importantly, previous cases have had catchy names. In this new case, the decease was simply the coronavirus. But coronavirus is not a name, it's a type. Most colds and flues are caused by coronaviruses.
The current outbreak follows a different narrative. We were repeatedly told that this is nothing to worry about. Everything is fine. The disease is contained. It does not communicate between people. If we just stop eating bat or snake soup, everything will be fine. But the panic laden actions taken by Chinese authorities a few days back was pretty much proof positive that things were far from contained. The rhetoric changed. We were suddenly faced with something severe. Yet there's still no word of any vaccine. There's also a blame game going on. People are pointing fingers. Scapegoats are found, such as bloggers promoting strange and unusual foods. The narrative is rapidly shifting. There's no central control of what people are being told. All of this indicate that the situation is the result of something completely unforeseen. Some accident in a government bio-lab, perhaps.
By Jean-Pierre from Cosne-Cours-sur-Loire (Nièvre, Burgundy region), France - Chemistry laboratory, detail, CC BY-SA 2.0, Link
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